#467 – Predicting Winners & IBC Updates
Have I got news for you!
Last weekend was IBC and the Emmys.
Congrats to all the nominees and winners, but particularly these previous Cut/daily Meets... interviewees!
- Yan Miles, Andor – Picture Editing for Drama Series
- George Haddad et al, The Studio - Sound Editing Drama/Comedy (1/2 hour)
- Plus Rebel Ridge for Outstanding TV Movie (it really is outstanding) - edited by its director, Jeremy Saulnier.
But before we dive in....
Can you add to this?
In case you missed it, last week I revealed that I had made something useful for you, dear readers: a growing resource of editorial events, local meet-ups, and other ‘just show up’ opportunities for editors to get to know other editors.
If you know of a great place to hear about post-production events, online or IRL, that is missing from the list, fill in this tiny form to fix that.
Editor Ty Clark wins the prize for the first addition, the Alliance of Documentary Editors.
Who will be next, I wonder?
There could be more prizes to be won!
How to predict the Emmys
Prediction markets are interesting.
Not as a way to throw money away on stupid bets, but as a way to find useful signal in the noise of life.
What are prediction markets?
A way to harness the wisdom of crowds, via financial incentives, on what may or may not happen in the future. People bet money (real or otherwise) on whether they think something will, or will not happen.
They tend to be right, in aggregate.
But because I'm a nerd for this stuff, and Kalshi is new to me, I wanted to know
– How smart is their crowd?
Of the 24 Emmy predictions, Kalshi's forecasters scored:
- 17 out of 24 predictions were correct (70.8% accuracy)
- Except for the 4 major upsets where the predicted favorite lost:
- Drama Series: Severance (59%) lost to The Pitt (41%)
- Drama Actress: Kathy Bates (78%) lost to Britt Lower (18%)
- Drama Supporting Actress: Carrie Coon (58%) lost to Katherine LaNasa (30%)
- Movie/Limited Series Actor: Colin Farrell (70%) lost to Stephen Graham (36%)
- The strongest predictions (90%+ probability) were almost all correct
- Markets with 60-79% predictions: 4 out of 7 correct (57.1% accuracy)
Don't waste your money on this, but maybe do take a look if you're ever nominated and then start writing that speech if the numbers are close to 80% in your favour...
Current Oscar nomination favourites:
- Best Director, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (69%)
- Best Picture, A House of Dynamite (53%)
Three interesting books on this:
What's new at IBC?
If NAB is the tick of the annual update cycle, then IBC is the tock.
Here's a quick summary of what's new in your favourite post-production tools.
- DaVinci Resolve
- Avid Media Composer
- Adobe Premiere Pro
- Frame.io
- Final Cut Pro
- Strada
- Hedge